We discovered that the earthquakes occur 2-3
days after the perturbations on the Sun. In this period of time on a background
of large-scale atmospheric processes, there can be local, prompt rellocations
of mass of an atmosphere concerning the epicentral of the earthquake. In
a seismic center the atmospheric pressure causes the loadings more than
100 thousand tons on each square kilometer of a surface from the different
sides of the tectonic faults. The sharp change of loadings on the ground
surface in region of tectonic faults probably causes the surface
earthquakes. On the basis of this hypotheses we have developed the short-term
forecast (1-2 days) of surface earthquakes. Let's consider the results
of prediction of earthquakes for April 2000 - May 2001.
During that time there were predicted 1597 earthquakes
feeble and moderate earthquakes.
The estimation of the forecasts in time.
Our method was worked out for the forecasts of strong earthquakes. However we consciously predicted feeble and moderate earthquakes with magnitude less than 5 M as for some occupied items after the previous strong earthquakes many buildings have stability about 50 %. Were not justified the forecasts of earthquakes with magnitude less than 5< M - in 479 cases. The represented below statistical estimations of the quality of the forecasts are obtained on the basis of 1118 cases.
The space estimation of the forecasts.
On fig.1
the estimation of spatial connection on latitude for forecasted and
registered earthquakes is represented. We can see, that the correlation
factor between forecasted and registered earthquakes is high enough.The more detailed
estimation of quality of the forecast on latitude is represented on fig. 2.
fig.2
It shows the allocation of number of cases of concurrences (with an interval
in 1 degree) of the forecasted and actual values of latitude of earthquakes.
From a figure it is visible, that in 449 cases the value of forecasted and registered
latitudes has coincided up to quantity less than 1 degree, and the main distinctions,
between the forecast and observations, do not exceed 5 degree interval.
The spatial estimation on a longitude is represented on fig.3,
fig.4
Accordingly correlation factor of the forecasts with observations of earthquakes,
on a longitude, makes r = 0.99. Histogram of allocation of number of cases of
concurrences between the forecast and observations on a longitude (Fig. 4) shows,
that in 348 cases the concurrence between them has made less than 1 degree.
The main part of concurrences of the forecasts with observations does not exceed 10 degrees.
The inference
The brief analysis of quality of our forecasts of earthquakes with the justifience
about 70 % (is exact 69.8%) convincingly has shown, that for today there is no
alternate method which allows to make, short-term forecasts of earthquakes, especially,
above such vast territory (of almost all Northern hemisphere). Examinations spent during
drawing up the forecasts, have shown, that reasons giving to to deterioration of quality
of the forecasts earthquakes are: 1- poor qualities of the forecasted meteorological
information, and 2- the absence of operating seismological monitoring. A competence of
seismo-synoptic method is confirmed by the given results, which are obtained without
seismological monitoring.A competence of seismo-synoptic method is confirmed by
the given results, which are obtained without seismological monitoring. In our
opinion, only joint cooperation of the meteorologists and geophysicists can increase
the justifience of the short-term forecasts of earthquakes up to 90 % and more.
This direction in prediction of earthquakes is nowhere developed, though,
in our opinion, it allows to solve such important problem already in the beginning
of the 21 century for Northern, Southern Hemispheres and equatorial band. The fulfilled
analysis of quality of the forecasts convinces us of continuation of examinations
and developments in a sectional direction. However, the absence of the financing
significally effects the intensity of operations on a sectional theme and on quality
of the forecasts.
17.01.2004
